THE BILLS’ CHANGE IN OFFENSIVE COORDINATOR LEADS TO MORE CARRIES FOR JOSH ALLEN AND FEWER OPPORTUNITIES FOR STEFON DIGGS
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The Bills made the switch at offensive coordinator after their Week 10 loss to the Denver Broncos, replacing Ken Dorsey with Joe Brady after a 5-5 start to the season. Since then, they have gone 5-1, with the lone loss being a 37-34 overtime defeat at the hands of the Philadelphia Eagles.
Since Week 11, Josh Allen has become more of a factor as a runner. His 89.8 PFF rushing grade ranks first at his position over the last seven weeks, and he is averaging 8.2 rushing attempts per game compared to 4.8 attempts per game over the first 10 weeks of the season.
Running back James Cook has also been relied on more, averaging 17.3 carries per game under Joe Brady compared to 12.0 per game over the first 10 weeks.
The increased emphasis on the ground game has led to a decrease in passing attempts, with Allen dropping from 35.0 attempts per game under Ken Dorsey to 31.8 per game under Joe Brady.
This has impacted Stefon Diggs’ production, with the Bills’ No. 1 wide receiver dropping from 10.0 targets per game through Week 10 to 8.5 targets per game. Diggs’ average depth of target has dropped from 11.0 yards to 9.9 yards, too.
If there is one positive caveat, the star wide receiver’s average target depth over the past two games has been 14.8 yards.
KEY DEFENSIVE INJURIES HURT THE MIAMI DOLPHINS
The Dolphins lost edge defender Bradley Chubb for the season in the Week 17 loss to the Baltimore Ravens, and it looks likely that cornerback Xavien Howard will also miss this AFC East decider.
No Dolphins player has recorded more total pressures than Chubb this season (70). His 13 sacks also leads his teammates, while his 16.6% pass-rush win rate and 15.7% pressure rate both rank second.
Replacing him will likely come from the combination of Melvin Ingram and Cameron Goode. Both have a significantly lower pass-rush win rate than Cubb, with Goode winning on 9.7% of his pass-rush snaps and Ingram just 5.0%. It could also open the door for a return to the lineup for Emmanuel Ogbah, who appeared to be a healthy scratch last week. Ogbah has a 9.0% pass-rush win rate this year, though his 15.3% pressure rate is the third-best mark among edge defenders on the team.
Howard’s injury will force the Dolphins to rely on Eli Apple as a starter once again. Apple has been one of the most targeted coverage defenders this year, seeing a target once every 4.8 snaps, the third-highest rate in the league. He’s allowed a reception once every 7.4 coverage snaps, tied for the league’s eighth-highest rate.