Entering the offseason, the Toronto Blue Jays had a very clearly defined shopping list: an outfielder who could hit with power from the left side, a third baseman to replace Matt Chapman, and another power bat to replace Brandon Belt. But like anyone who’s shopped at a Trader Joe’s when their new monthly specials first hit the shelves, that focus is now gone.

Team president Mark Shapiro said after the season, “I don’t expect a dramatic philosophical shift in payroll. I expect us to stay in the same area.” That would imply a luxury tax payroll near $257M for 2024, which leaves ~$32M more in annual payroll capacity above a current projected 2024 competitive balance tax (CBT) payroll of $225M after spending $18M so far on Kiermaier and IKF.

Yes, there was a failed attempt to trade for lefty slugger Juan Soto, who ended up with the division rival Yankees. Indeed, Shohei Ohtani’s agent at CAA appears to have used the Blue Jays as a ‘stalking horse’ to drive up his client’s asking price with the Los Angeles Dodgers. And the Jays have legitimately been mentioned as the favourites in the Cody Bellinger free agent sweepstakes.

So what has general manager Ross Atkins done since missing out on Ohtani and Soto? Signed a soon-to-be 37-year old journeyman reliever with a 5.01 career ERA as Triple-A depth in Paolo Espino; re-signed Kevin Kiermaier to run back the same outfield as 2023; and, in a head scratching move, spent $15M of Rogers’ money on year another a right-handed hitting utility infielder with a career OPS of .660 in Isiah Kiner-Falefa.

Yes, Kiermaier hits from their left side, and put up a 3.9 bWAR in 2023, helped by his Gold Glove-winning defence in CF. But he only hit 8 home runs in 129 games, the most he’s played since 2019 with Tampa Bay. He’ll be 34-years old in April, and over a year and a half removed from his 2022 hip surgery.

But he’d also mentioned a desire to play more games on grass ahead of becoming a free agent this year: “Being on the turf my entire career, I enjoy being on the grass. My body feels so much better being on grass.” Kiermaier is what he is at this stage of his career: a mostly glove first guy who will be about league average on OPS, and maybe give you 8~10 home runs if he can play 130 games. That’s the ceiling.

Which brings us to the odd Kiner-Falefa signing. Sportsnet writer Ben Nicholson Smith tweeted that “IKF raises [the Blue Jays] floor because of his versatility.” That’s a stretch given this team’s weakness is offence, and Kiner-Falefa actually lowers the floor in that regard. He’s a 0.1 bWAR player with a career OPS of .660, 19% below league average in his six seasons.