The middle of the AFL ladder is often called “no-man’s land”—a tough spot where teams are neither fighting for a premiership nor securing high draft picks. In 2024, five teams found themselves in this uncertain space: Collingwood, St Kilda, Fremantle, Gold Coast, and Essendon. The reasons for their placement varied—some teams were plagued by injuries, while others fell short of expectations or suffered late-season collapses. With at least two new teams likely to enter the finals in 2025, the big question remains: which of these middle-tier teams will break through?
Gold Coast had one of their best seasons yet, setting a new club record with 11 wins and a percentage of 99.1. However, their struggles on the road, including crucial losses to West Coast and North Melbourne, cost them a finals spot. The team has undeniable talent, but they remain inconsistent. While defensive reinforcements like Daniel Rioli and John Noble should bolster their backline, the Suns’ forward line is still heavily reliant on Ben King, and their midfield has yet to dominate elite opposition. They’ll need to make significant strides in 2025 to secure a top-eight finish.
St Kilda is another team that’s difficult to pin down. After unexpectedly making the finals in 2023 under Ross Lyon, the Saints faltered in 2024, finishing 12th. A tough injury run has weakened their squad heading into 2025, and while their depth has been a long-term issue, they lack the game-breaking talent to rise above mid-table. However, Lyon has a knack for defying expectations, so dismissing them entirely would be unwise. Meanwhile, Essendon’s 2024 season was a rollercoaster—they started strong, leading some to believe they were premiership contenders, only to fade dramatically. The Bombers still have areas of concern, including an undersized defense and a midfield overly reliant on Zach Merrett. Improvement is possible, but a top-eight finish remains uncertain.
Fremantle is perhaps the most puzzling case. They were in the top four late in the season but collapsed in their final games, missing the finals entirely. With a well-rounded squad—including a strong defense, a talented midfield led by Caleb Serong and Andrew Brayshaw, and an underrated forward line—the Dockers have the potential to be a top team. However, 2025 will be a defining year for coach Justin Longmuir, who needs to deliver a finals appearance after several near misses.
Finally, Collingwood, the reigning 2023 premiers, had a disappointing 2024, missing the finals due to a mix of injuries and tight losses. Despite strong recruiting and a veteran core still capable of performing, the Magpies face tough competition. While their luck in close games has generally been favorable, a few extra losses could see them miss out again. If that happens, questions may start to arise about coach Craig McRae’s long-term future. With so many teams improving, 2025 promises to be a season where the battle for finals spots is fiercer than ever.