Tyson Bagent will start for the Bears once more on Thursday night, and they believe he has improved significantly in his three starts and one-half of a game.
“I think as a rookie, you’re always going to learn a bunch every game and I think last game was no different than that,” Matt Eberflus, the coach, said. “He will simply continue to become better.
“I think you learn a lot of different things every game as a quarterback.”
No one doubts this, but in that amount of time with six interceptions and two lost fumbles to go with three touchdown passes, it might be the Bears who should have learned even more.
They should know they want the ball out of the rookie’s hands as much as possible.
Offensive coordinator Luke Getsy should have a better idea about how to help his young passer by keeping him out of situations where he can turn over the football.
Turnovers and the balance of run and pass are critical on a Thursday night, with little preparation time for a quarterback who counts as his greatest strength the ability to prepare.
Expect little risk when the 2-7 Bears try to earn their third win of the season at Soldier Field against the 1-7 Panthers.
Here are the keys to a Bears victory over a team they’d also love to see lose every remaining game simply because they own Carolina’s draft pick.
1. Put It in D’Onta Foreman’s Hands
It’s not too complicated. They may also want to put it in Khalil Herbert’s hands because they’ve lacked that breakaway speed with both Herbert and Justin Fields out of the lineup, but it’s probable they’ll get Herbert back from injured reserve for the game. More importantly, they need to get it to Foreman to run against his old team. They discarded him after a big season and after he’d become a fan favorite in Carolina.
The emphasis on running the ball well has multiple reasons beyond Foreman’s personal situation. The Bears run the ball on 45.9% of running plays, the fifth-highest amount and Carolina is allowing 4.9 yards a carry, the fourth-worst average in the league. Brian Burns is out and he helps Carolina as a pass rusher but also as a run defender.
Putting it in Foreman’s hands means it’s out of the hands of the young, mistake-prone quarterback.
Running and keeping the ball safe, or punting and letting a defense stop the young mistake-prone passer for Carolina who doesn’t have many dependable targets is the best approach.
2. Win the Third Quarter
For a change, the Bears might have found someone as bad or worse than they are at playing after halftime. They have been outscored 7.4 points to 2.8 points per third quarter and their scoring differential then is the worst in the NFL.
Even when they blew out Washington, they struggled for most of the third quarter before taking control.
However, Carolina rarely runs a successful pass play in third quarters. A successful play in the NFL for stat purposes is one that gains 40% of the yards to go on first down, 60% of it on second down and 100% of it on third or fourth down. Carolina runs successful pass plays in third quarters in the last two seasons 36% of the time. That’s the worst level in the NFL.
At worst, the Bears should be able to battle to a draw then and take the game if they can win the first half.
3. Don’t Forget DJ Moore
In the last four starts, since Moore had his huge 230-yard game against Washington, the Bears have targeted him on 23% of passes. On the year, Moore has only 12 more targets than tight end Cole Kmet.
Is that really why they brought Moore to Chicago, to be targeted 12 more times in nine games than the tight end? They probably could have made Equanimeous St. Brown the X-receiver and did that.
Even the Panthers were able to get him targets at 27.6% and 28.3% clips the previous two seasons.
“I am conscious of the fact DJ is our guy, he’s our X-factor and I’ve got to do a good job of getting him the ball,” Bagent said. “Other than that, I’m playing the play. I’m going through the progressions, I’m doing the best that I possibly can in order to move the chains and be successful as an offense. So that’s probably the only thing that I’m conscious about, is that DJ is our guy.”
Then he and Getsy have to make sure they remember he is their guy.
So teams are trying to scheme Moore out of it with double team? There are still ways to counter such schemes to get Moore open against such tactics, even if it means shorter routes or running picks. They might even want to try a drag route or two. Hitting those routes seems to be forbidden to the Bears for some reason.
Not getting Moore the ball in as many possible ways as possible, whether in very short routes or longer routes, is a definite path to a Bears win.