Arsenal v Man City: Are Gunners in better position to beat City and win Premier League

A little over a week ago, the Premier League championship was widely believed to be a one-horse contest.

Champions Chris Sutton, a former Blackburn Rovers striker, said on BBC Radio 5 Live that “let’s be honest, we are all expecting Man City to run away with the title again” after Manchester City had once again appeared to be unstoppable with six victories in a row.

There were others who shared his thoughts, but it’s amazing how much can change in a week. Newcastle’s victory in the Carabao Cup and Wolverhampton Wanderers’ first league defeat have made Pep Guardiola’s team appear somewhat weak.

Arsenal, even though City, the reigning champions and favorites to win a fourth straight championship, are atop the standings,

Before City’s visit to Emirates Stadium on Sunday (16:30 BST), former Manchester United defender Gary Neville has predicted Arsenal will win the title.

So have the Gunners, who blew an eight-point lead late in the season to finish five points behind in second place last time round, moved closer to Guardiola’s class of 2023-24?

How does this compare with last season and what changed in the summer?

Last season, after seven games, Arsenal was leading Manchester City by one point, with 18 points to City’s 17.

The standings are reversed this season, with City leading with 18 points and Arsenal trailing with 17, despite the Gunners’ current unbeaten record.

Following that, Arsenal won 10 of their next 12 games and drew two, putting them five points ahead of City with one game remaining in the season.

However, City would finally catch up to them and win the championship with still more games to go.

Neville, a former England right-back, advised sticking with them while there were still nine or ten games remaining in his podcast.

“Arsenal won’t waltz into the league title; you almost never win your first championship that way; you usually have to scrape by.”

“Last season, they made mistakes and fell apart in the final minutes, but they need to be in that situation again. Then, we’ll check to see if they’ve grown. I believe they will.

With no European competition to contend with, Arsenal had a smaller roster last season. However, it proved to be their downfall as they failed to manage injuries, particularly to center-back William Saliba.

As a result, they added players like Declan Rice of West Ham, Kai Havertz of Chelsea, Jurrien Timber of Ajax, and David Raya of Brentford to their roster over the summer.

Strikers could make a difference.
Arsenal scored 88 goals in the Premier League.

Bukayo Saka (14) and Gabriel Jesus (11) also hit double figures.

City had a more reliable goal source in Erling Haaland, who hit a Premier League record 36. But Phil Foden, with 11, and Julian Alvarez, on nine, were far behind.

This season Arsenal have 15 Premier League goals to City’s 17 – but Brighton, Aston Villa and Newcastle have scored more than either team.

“Would Arsenal be better with an Alvarez, a Haaland? Of course,” said Sutton. “Did they make progress last season? Absolutely. Did they make good signings this summer? Of course. But are signings like Rice, Havertz, Timber and Raya going to get them to topple Man City? I don’t think so.

“I do think goalscoring is a problem for Arsenal. I like [Eddie] Nketiah, but is he a world-class striker? I don’t think so. Jesus has come in for a fair bit of criticism because he is not a natural finisher.

“I do think he has made Arsenal stronger, but he is not clinical. If they want to be Premier League champions they probably need to act and get one in. But there aren’t many out there. That is the issue.”

Simon Gleave, head of analysis at Nielsen Gracenote, said: “Although six teams have scored more goals than Arsenal so far this Premier League season, Gracenote’s expected goals model says that the Gunners have the second-best attack in terms of the quality of chances created.

“Looking at these numbers compared to the same fixtures last season, Arsenal’s attack has improved significantly despite the number of goal attempts being slightly lower.

“This is because the chance of the average goal attempt being scored in these seven fixtures has increased from 9% last term to 13.5% now.

“Despite scoring 17 Premier League goals this season, and having more shots and shots on target than in last season’s opening seven matches, Manchester City’s underlying numbers suggest that their attack is not as potent as it has been during most of Pep Guardiola’s tenure.

“City have created just 10.9 expected goals, 30% less than last season’s 15.65 from the first seven matches.”

Did the Community Shield make a difference?

Arsenal have not beaten City in the Premier League since December 2015 and have lost their past 12 league encounters.

Their last such match was City’s 4-1 win at Etihad Stadium in April that knocked the wind out of Arsenal’s sails and put City in control of the title.

In August’s Community Shield, the Gunners beat City on penalties – having scored an equaliser through Leandro Trossard 11 minutes into injury time.

But former England winger Andros Townsend thinks that could prove to be a boost to City in the long term.

“I think that Community Shield defeat by Arsenal got rid of any hangover City could possibly have had,” he said on BBC Radio 5 Live.

“Every team that has won the league, there has always been a hangover the next season and Manchester City are the only side who have been able to go on 15-game winning runs to recover it.

“But I think that loss to Arsenal and the reaction of Arsenal, the celebrations, gave Pep the opportunity to refocus his squad and get them going