As the 2024 NAB AFLW season wraps up, it’s time to delve into the performance of teams based on the difficulty of their fixtures. Surprisingly, the reigning champions, Brisbane, faced the easiest draw this season, while Fremantle navigated a more challenging schedule than anticipated yet still managed to secure a spot in the top eight.
At the beginning of the season, the expected difficulty of each team’s fixture was assessed by reviewing the finishing positions of the opposing teams from the previous year. This method assigned a lower score to teams with harder draws. Initially, Brisbane was projected to have the fourth toughest schedule with a difficulty rating of 94. However, they defied expectations, finishing with a remarkable score of 124, indicating a significantly easier path as they faced only two teams that had made the finals last season out of their eleven matches.
Interestingly, while Brisbane thrived, Hawthorn, who ended the previous season in 14th place, also enjoyed a more favorable schedule than expected. They capitalized on this easier draw, rising to a commendable second place in the standings. In contrast, Fremantle, originally anticipated to have the most manageable schedule, found themselves with the ninth easiest, yet still finished fifth, achieving eight wins from eleven games.
On the flip side, teams like Melbourne, Geelong, and Adelaide had the toughest fixtures this year. Despite having secured spots in the finals last season, they struggled against stronger opponents in 2024. The calculations for fixture difficulty relied on both expected and actual outcomes, revealing a notable discrepancy for some teams. For example, Melbourne’s actual degree of difficulty was 85, compared to an expected score of 91, making their season six points harder than forecasted.
The detailed statistics illustrate the variances in fixture difficulty across the league. While teams like Brisbane and Hawthorn thrived under lighter schedules, others faced the brunt of tougher competition, highlighting the unpredictability and competitive nature of the AFLW. As the season progresses, these insights not only reflect team performances but also shape strategies for upcoming games, setting the stage for a thrilling conclusion to the season.